Question #88

Reading: Reading 31 Valuation of Contingent Claims

PDF File: Reading 31 Valuation of Contingent Claims.pdf

Page: 41

Status: Unattempted

Part of Context Group: Q88-91 First in Group
Shared Context
of 111 Suppose a forward rate agreement (FRA) calls for us to receive the six-month MRR two years from now for a payment of a fixed rate of interest of 6%. Which of the following structures is equivalent to this long FRA? A long: A) put and a short call on MRR with a strike rate of 6% and two years to expiration. B) call and a short put on MRR with a strike rate of 6% and two years to expiration. C) call on MRR with a strike rate of 6% and eighteen months to expiration. Al Bingly, CFA, is a derivatives specialist who attempts to identify and make short-term gains from trading mispriced options. One of the strategies that Bingly uses is to look for arbitrage opportunities in the market for European options. This strategy involves creating a synthetic call from other instruments at a cost less than the market value of the call itself, and then selling the call. During the course of his research, he observes that Hilland Corporation's stock is currently priced at $56, while a European-style put option with a strike price of $55 is trading at $0.40 and a European-style call option with the same strike price is trading at $2.50. Both options have 6 months remaining until expiration. The risk-free rate is currently 4 percent. Bingly often uses the binomial model to estimate the fair price of an option. He then compares his estimated price to the market price. He observes that Dale Corporation's stock has a current market price of $200, and he predicts that its price will either be $166.67 or $240 in one year. The risk-free rate is currently 4 percent. He also observes that the price of a one-year call with a $220 strike price is $11.11. Bingly also uses the Black-Scholes-Merton model to price options. His stated rationale for using this model is that he believes the prices of the stocks he analyzes follow a lognormal distribution, and because the model allows for a varying risk-free rate over the life of the option. His plan is to use a statistical technique to estimate the volatility of a stock, enter it into the Black-Scholes-Merton model, and see if the associated price is higher or lower than the observed market price of the options on the stock. Bingly wishes to apply the Black-Scholes-Merton model to both non-dividend paying and dividend paying stocks. He investigates how the presence of dividends will affect the estimated call and put price.
Question
The one-year call option on Dale Corporation:
Answer Choices:
A. is underpriced
B. is overpriced
C. may be over or underpriced. The given information is not sufficient to give an answer
Explanation
The up movement parameter U=1.20, and the down movement parameter D=0.833. We calculate the probability of an up move πU = (1 + 0.04 – 0.833)/(1.2 – 0.833) = 0.564. The call is out of the money in the event of a down movement, and has an intrinsic value of $20 in the event of an up movement. Therefore, the estimated value of the call is C = (0.564) × $20 / (1.04) = $10.85. Thus, the price of $11.11 is too high and the call is overpriced.
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