Question #13
Reading: Reading 30 Pricing and Valuation of Forward Commitments
PDF File: Reading 30 Pricing and Valuation of Forward Commitments.pdf
Page: 6
Status: Unattempted
Part of Context Group: Q13-16
First in Group
Shared Context
Question
How will the price of the one-year stock index future perform over the next 12 months?
Answer Choices:
A. The futures price will converge to the future spot index price, with the basis reducing to zero
B. The value will move approximately in line with the spot index price, with a fairly constant basis
C. The futures price will move approximately in line with the spot index price, though its actual level at the end of the year will depend more on supply and demand than on the spot price
Explanation
The futures price will converge to the spot price over the lifetime of the contract, with the
basis (difference between future and spot) reducing over this period to zero as an expiring
futures contract is the same as a spot transaction. At expiration the futures and spot price
will converge to prevent an arbitrage opportunity. Answer B is wrong, as it implies the
future price will move in a straight line.