Question #46
Reading: Reading 2 Time-Series Analysis
PDF File: Reading 2 Time-Series Analysis.pdf
Page: 22
Status: Unattempted
Part of Context Group: Q46-49
First in Group
Shared Context
Question
Imagine that Johnson prepares a change-in-sales regression analysis model with seasonality, which includes the following: Coefficients Intercept −6.032 Lag 1 0.017 Lag 4 0.983 Based on the model, expected sales in the first quarter of 2015 will be closest to:
Answer Choices:
A. 190
B. 210
C. 155
Explanation
Substituting the 1-period lagged data from 2014.4 and the 4-period lagged data from
2014.1 into the model formula, change in sales is predicted to be −6.032 + (0.017 × 170) +
(0.983 × −48) = −50.326. Expected sales are 260 + (−50.326) = 209.674.