Question #20

Reading: Reading 25 The Term Structure and Interest Rate Dynamics

PDF File: Reading 25 The Term Structure and Interest Rate Dynamics.pdf

Page: 8

Status: Correct

Correct Answer: A

Part of Context Group: Q20-23 First in Group
Shared Context
of 79 The swap spread will increase with: A) a deterioration in one party’s credit. B) the variability of interest rates. C) an increase in the credit spread embedded in the reference. James Wallace, CFA, is a fixed income fund manager at a large investment firm. Each year, the firm recruits a group of new college graduates in the spring to enter in the firm's management training program. The program is a rigorous six-month course that exposes every candidate to each of the different departments within the firm. After successfully completing the six-month training period, candidates then receive offers for employment in one of the departments within the investment firm. Recently, Wallace was selected by his boss to teach the fixed income portion of the firm's training program. He will be able to hold several two-hour sessions with the new hires over a two-week time period, during which he is expected to instruct the trainee's on all aspects of fixed income analysis. These sessions serve as preparation for the trainees to be able to complete a month long rotation on the fixed income trading desk. His first few sessions will cover the core concepts of fixed income investing. Wallace believes that in order to fully grasp the more complicated concepts of fixed income analysis, the new hires must first begin by having a complete knowledge of the term structure and the volatility of interest rates. The new hires each have different educational backgrounds and varying amounts of work experience, so Wallace decides to begin with the most very basic concepts. He wants to start by teaching the various theories of the term structure of interest rates, and the implications of each theory for the shape of the Treasure yield curve. To evaluate the trainees' understanding of the subjects at hand, he creates a series of questions. The following interest rate scenario is used to derive examples on the different theories used to explain the shape of the term structure and for all computational problems in Wallace's lectures. Table 1 LIBOR Forward Rates and Implied Spot Rates Period LIBOR Forward Rates Implied Spot Rates 0 × 6 5.0000% 5.0000% 6 × 12 5.5000% 5.2498% 12 × 18 6.0000% 5.4996% 18 × 24 6.5000% 5.7492% 24 × 30 6.7500% 5.9490% 30 × 36 7.0000% 6.1238% James uses a rounded day count of 0.5 years for each semi-annual period.
Question
Following Wallace's first lecture he asks the trainees which of the following explains an upward sloping yield curve according to the (unbiased) pure expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates?
Answer Choices:
A. There is greater demand for short-term securities than for long-term securities
B. There is a risk premium associated with more distant maturities
C. The market expects short-term rates to rise through the relevant future
Explanation
Under this theory, forward rates exclusively represent expected future spot rates. Thus the entire term structure at a given time reflects the market's expectations of future short term spot rates.
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