Question #12

Reading: Reading 2 Time-Series Analysis

PDF File: Reading 2 Time-Series Analysis.pdf

Page: 5

Status: Unattempted

Correct Answer: A

Part of Context Group: Q11-12
Shared Context
- What is the forecast for the gross margin in the first quarter of 2004? A) 0.246. B) 0.250. C) 0.256.
Question
Supposing the time series is actually a random walk, which of the following approaches would be appropriate prior to using an autoregressive model?
Answer Choices:
A. First differencing the time series
B. ARCH
C. Convert the time series by taking a natural log of the series
Explanation
First differencing often transforms a random walk into a covariance stationary time series which can then be fitted using autoregressive models. ARCH is a type of AR model where the residuals exhibit conditional heteroskedasticity and is not an approach to convert a random walk into a covariance stationary time series. Taking natural log is recommended for a time series with an exponential growth prior to fitting a trend model.
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